Scientists Fear the Worst in Santorini: Earthquake, Volcano, and Tsunami Risk

Santorini has been shaken by increased seismic activity, raising concerns among scientists and residents. On February 9, a 5.0-magnitude earthquake was felt as far as Athens, sparking fears of a worsening situation. Experts note that the region is in a delicate geophysical state, where further tremors of 5-6 magnitude could occur. If this happens, consequences may include landslides, massive cracks, and even a small tsunami.

Some warn that the situation could resemble the catastrophic earthquake of 1956, while the Greek government has taken measures to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Experts recommend patience for at least two more weeks to better understand the evolution of seismic activity in Santorini and the surrounding islands.

At the start of this seismic period, three scenarios were proposed for possible developments. The least favorable scenario, which predicted a 6.0-magnitude earthquake with foreshocks, now seems less likely. However, if an earthquake surpasses this magnitude, it could cause significant damage, building collapses, and potentially loss of life. The most concerning scenario would be the reactivation of Santorini’s volcano, which last erupted in ancient times, forming the volcanic islands of the region.

Scientist Athanasios Ganas, director of Research at the Geodynamic Institute of Athens, believes this is a sequence of earthquakes that is now fading. He highlights that seismic activity has shifted toward Anhidra and is unlikely to continue with the same intensity. According to him, the energy released by recent tremors is equivalent to a 6.0-magnitude earthquake, suggesting that underground pressure has decreased.

Meanwhile, Efthimios Lekkas, president of OASP and professor of Geology, has described three possible scenarios. The first is that the phenomenon continues at the same intensity, with moderate earthquakes. The second is a 5.5-5.7 magnitude earthquake that would not cause significant damage. The third—considered the most dangerous—would be an earthquake exceeding 6.0 magnitude, which could have catastrophic consequences. The Seismic and Volcanic Risk Committee has even discussed the possibility of a 6.2-magnitude earthquake.

The worst-case scenario would occur if a powerful earthquake struck Santorini, toppling buildings and causing casualties. While this scenario is considered less likely, it cannot be completely ruled out. Experts emphasize that nature remains unpredictable, and Santorini’s volcano, although inactive, remains a silent threat.

With over 11,000 seismic tremors recorded since the start of this activity, the situation remains sensitive. Authorities and the scientific community are closely monitoring the phenomenon to minimize risks and take necessary measures to ensure public safety.

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