Scientists warn of the risk of a major earthquake and tsunami on the U.S. West Coast by the year 2100

Scientists warn of ‘apocalyptic tsunami’ threatening U.S. and Canadian West Coast by 2100

Scientists are warning of an “apocalyptic tsunami” with waves up to 30 meters high, which could strike the west coast of the United States and Canada in the near future.

A new study forecasts that by the year 2100, there is an almost certain risk of a massive earthquake with a magnitude of at least 8.0 in the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ), located in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

According to the study, the probability of such an event occurring in the next 50 years is now estimated at 37%, significantly higher than earlier projections of just 10–15%.

What is the CSZ?

The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a major tectonic fault about 1,000 kilometers long, located just offshore of North America's west coast. It stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada down to the southern coast of California, passing through Washington and Oregon. Here, the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate is slowly sliding beneath the North American plate.

Dire forecasts

An international team of scientists, led by Virginia Tech, warns that a magnitude 8–9 earthquake in the CSZ could trigger a tsunami up to 30 meters high, which would severely impact vast parts of the West Coast, instantly sinking nearly 2.5 meters of shoreline.

According to FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), such an earthquake could result in around 5,800 deaths, while the resulting tsunami could claim another 8,000 lives.

“It would be an extremely destructive event for the U.S., no question. The tsunami will push inland and be catastrophic,” said Professor Dina Dura, lead author of the study.

Climate change increases the risk

Scientists caution that the damage could be even greater if the earthquake occurs later in the century, due to sea level rise. Projections suggest the sea level could rise by up to 60 cm by 2100, significantly worsening the disaster.

A previous FEMA report predicted that a future Cascadia earthquake could injure over 100,000 people and destroy more than 618,000 buildings, including over 2,000 schools and 100 critical facilities, with damages exceeding $134 billion.

Coastal transformation

The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, estimates that a future earthquake and tsunami will reshape the U.S. West Coast for centuries. Flood-prone areas could expand by over 300 square kilometers across Washington, Oregon, and California — regions already prone to “once-in-a-century” flooding.

In the worst-case scenario, this flooding could double, affecting even more homes, roads, and infrastructure.

A disaster in waiting

The CSZ has been silently building energy for over 300 years. The last major earthquake occurred on January 26, 1700, with a magnitude of 9.0. It triggered a tsunami that hit the Canadian coast just 30 minutes later with waves up to 30 meters high.

Now, more than 325 years later, the accumulated tectonic energy suggests that a new megaquake is more likely than ever, scientists warn.

“KORÇA BOOM”