Solar storms are secretly bringing down Elon Musk's satellites

New research reveals that the increasing solar activity is shortening the lifespan of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites and causing them to return to Earth at a faster rate.

This surprising effect could increase the risk of satellite debris reaching the ground, challenging current assumptions about the safety of satellite re-entries.

Solar storms are shortening the lifespan of Starlink satellites

A study led by Denny Oliveira from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center examined Starlink satellite re-entries between 2020 and 2024, a period marked by increased solar activity as the Sun approached its 11-year solar maximum in October 2024.

Over these five years, 523 Starlink satellites re-entered Earth’s atmosphere. Using statistical methods, Oliveira’s team found that geomagnetic storms are causing these satellites to lose altitude and re-enter earlier than expected. Typically designed to orbit for about five years, the Starlink satellites had their operational lifespans shortened by around 10 to 12 days. This occurs because geomagnetic storms heat and expand the upper atmosphere, increasing atmospheric drag on the spacecraft. This drag causes the satellites to slow down and lose altitude more quickly.

Solar storms may cause satellite collisions

Atmospheric heating not only shortens satellite lifespans; it also increases the likelihood of satellite collisions. The orbital models used by SpaceX and other operators to avoid collisions do not fully account for the increased drag caused by geomagnetic storms.

As a result, satellites can move unpredictably, potentially raising the risk of satellite-on-satellite collisions. With the number of satellites orbiting Earth rising—mostly due to megaconstellations like Starlink—this presents a growing challenge for space traffic management.

Faster re-entries and concerns over debris

Another surprising finding is that Starlink satellites re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at higher speeds during geomagnetic storms. Oliveira suggests this could raise the chances of debris surviving re-entry and reaching the ground. This seems counterintuitive, as higher speeds usually mean more friction and heat, which should burn up satellites completely. However, he proposes that reduced atmospheric interaction during these faster descents could allow some debris to survive. In 2024, a 5.5-pound piece of Starlink debris fell on a farm in Saskatchewan. SpaceX acknowledged that debris fragments could return to Earth, but stated there is "no risk to people on the ground, in the sea, or in the air." Currently, there are over 7,500 Starlink satellites in orbit, with SpaceX planning to increase that number to 42,000.

Managing an increasingly crowded orbit

Oliveira emphasized that this is the first time in history that so many satellites have occupied Earth’s orbit simultaneously. “Now, we have satellites re-entering almost every week. And possibly, in the coming months or years, every day.”

Understanding how solar activity affects their lifespan and atmospheric re-entries will be vital as orbital congestion increases. This knowledge is essential for safely managing space traffic and minimizing risks from satellite debris reaching Earth.

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