Why is there talk about the end of the world in 2026? Scientist von Foerster’s calculations and his prediction

Humanity’s fascination with the apocalypse has been with us for millennia, manifesting cyclically through religious prophecies, astrological interpretations, or collective psychosis. In recent decades, we have witnessed several catastrophic deadlines that, of course, never materialized: many will remember the Millennium Bug on the eve of the year 2000, which threatened a global technological collapse capable of bringing down civilization, or the recurring theories about the mysterious planet Nibiru, supposedly destined to collide with Earth.

The most famous and widespread of these recent “deadlines” was undoubtedly the one linked to the Mayan calendar, set for December 21, 2012. In that case, a massive wave of media panic was generated by a misunderstanding: the Mayans had never actually prophesied the extinction of the human race, but rather the end of the thirteenth cycle of their era-counting system.

The Physicist’s “Prophecy”

But there is another “prophecy,” whose expiration date is approaching, and it has nothing to do with ancient codes, blackouts, or mysterious planets. In 1960, Austrian physicist and cyberneticist Heinz von Foerster published a study in the prestigious journal Science titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November 2026. The scientist applied consistent mathematical criteria and statistical models based on concrete and tangible data, particularly the historical trend of global population growth.

How the “Apocalypse” Was Calculated

Von Foerster’s research was based on a mathematical equation analyzing the acceleration of global population growth. According to his calculations, if the growth rate recorded in the previous century continued unchanged, Earth’s population would reach infinity by the autumn of 2026. This scenario would create an absolute point of no return, not because of a natural cataclysm or an asteroid, but rather due to the total unsustainability of human life on the planet: too many mouths to feed given the inevitably limited nature of food, water, and energy resources.

The collapse envisioned by the scientist had not only environmental implications but also deeply social ones. Von Foerster feared that overpopulation and the shortage of basic necessities would trigger a breakdown in civil and state structures, leading to an “end of the world” understood as the total destruction of organized society caused by humanity itself.

Was von Foerster Right?

Looking at current global dynamics, amid the climate crisis and the uncontrolled exploitation of the planet, the scenario described may even seem plausible. However, the 1960 scientific research suffers from an unavoidable structural limitation: the outdated nature of its original data. Von Foerster formulated his equations during the demographic boom of the 1960s, a historical period characterized by what appeared to be an unstoppable explosion in birth rates.

History, however, took a different turn. Although the world population has indeed continued to grow, the global growth rate has slowed significantly in recent decades. Instead of the endless growth predicted by the physicist, large parts of the world today, including many industrialized countries, are facing the opposite scenario: a demographic winter characterized by declining birth rates and a progressively aging population.

This deviation from past mathematical models now acts as a real lifeline for Earth, disproving the geometric precision of that formula and allowing us to pass November 13 without fear of an imminent apocalypse.

“KORÇA BOOM”