Donald Trump, will he be the leader to end the war in Ukraine?

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, questions arise about his most ambitious campaign promise: ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. Since then, Trump appears to have adjusted his timeline. Could this be good news for Ukraine?

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could end Russia’s war against Ukraine in 24 hours. “I’ll make the deal in a day,” Trump declared.

This claim seemed unrealistic, even for Trump, known for his bold electoral narrative. As the largest war in Europe since World War II rages across Ukraine, this specific promise has remained central to Trump’s campaign and has since become a critical issue.

In his victory speech on November 6, Trump did not mention Ukraine but hinted at the importance of his second term for the war-torn country. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated him on X (formerly Twitter), recalling their face-to-face discussions in New York City in September.

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs. This is precisely the principle that can practically bring closer a just peace in Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote.

However, as Trump’s return to the White House nears, the 47th President of the United States seems to have provided a revised timeline for his claim. What began as “24 hours” has now shifted to six months.

In a significant reality check, Trump acknowledged that a six-month timeline to end the war would be more realistic. Former Ukrainian Economy Minister Tymofiy Mylovanov said this revised timeline is a positive sign for Kyiv.

“The worst-case scenario would be Ukraine’s surrender. And that’s the 24-hour scenario where essentially the U.S. leverages its influence over Ukraine and the EU to cut support,” Mylovanov said.

“That’s why the 24-hour scenario is the worst possible scenario for Ukraine. So, the fact they’re now talking about six months or three months suggests they’re planning something. And that’s why they need time.”

“Much better than it could have been”

According to Mylovanov, there are signs that plans are being developed, potentially in coordination between administrations, amidst outgoing President Joe Biden’s final push to seize $300 billion of Russian assets.

Reports suggest these funds belong to the Russian Central Bank and were initially frozen three years ago after Moscow launched its aggression against Ukraine. Most of these funds are held in European banks, though a portion remains in U.S.-based institutions.

“These signs indicate that the Trump administration is evolving towards a scenario that is less favorable for Russia, which is good news for Ukraine,” Mylovanov explained.

Mylovanov acknowledged that many Ukrainians remain worried about what Trump’s presidency might mean for the country, which has been defending itself from Russian invasion for nearly three years.

“They say Trump is trying to sell us out,” Mylovanov noted.

“Maybe not as good as it could be, but much better than it could have been,” he added.

Even if Trump’s administration leans towards what he called a “less favorable scenario” for Russia, this does not necessarily mean it would be advantageous for Ukraine. During a presidential debate, Trump avoided saying whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war, dodging the question directly. Instead, he stated, “I want the war to stop.”

Is this good enough for Kyiv?

“It’s all about realistic expectations of what Ukrainians are and aren’t willing to accept,” Mylovanov said.

“What people aren’t willing to accept is a change to the constitution, disarmament of Ukraine, or the ceding of unoccupied territories. What people are willing to accept—based on surveys—is some form of temporary acknowledgment that we don’t control the territory,” he explained.

“So, a sort of de facto reality. People are willing to accept reality but aren’t willing to surrender.”

Mylovanov emphasized that the challenge lies in finding what Ukraine and Russia can agree on.

“Putin needs to sell it domestically as a victory. Ukraine needs to sell it domestically as a guarantee against future invasions. Anything implying that Russia could return and seize more territory is unacceptable,” the former minister concluded.

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