Statistical experts reveal the favorites to win the World Cup / Three national teams that have no chance

Korca Boom
Dec 6
3 min read

The World Cup draw took place on Friday, with just six months remaining until the start of the most important football tournament.

The last World Cup, held in Qatar in 2022, is considered one of the most extraordinary tournaments, played under some of the most unusual conditions. But the 2026 World Cup will be even bigger, featuring 48 national teams already divided into 12 groups.

In 2022, the winning team was Argentina, with Lionel Messi finally lifting the trophy he had long awaited.

But who are the favorites to win the tournament next year?

A total of 48 teams will take part in next summer’s tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, following FIFA’s expansion of the World Cup.

This expansion has allowed several nations to qualify for this extraordinary event for the first time, with Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan set to make their debuts.

Statistics experts at Opta have released their first set of predictions for the World Cup, highlighting the tournament favorites and three teams considered to have no chance of lifting the trophy.

According to Opta, Spain is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup. Coach Luis De La Fuente led his team to victory at the UEFA European Championship 2024, and there is no doubt that the Spaniards will be eager to build on that success.

They won five of six possible matches in the qualifying stage, although they drew with Turkey in their final match, knowing they had already qualified.

Opta gives the 2010 champions a 17% chance of becoming world champions again.

France is the second favorite, with a 14.1% chance.

Didier Deschamps has led the team to two consecutive World Cup finals, winning in 2018 and losing on penalties in 2022 despite Kylian Mbappe’s hat-trick.

Deschamps’ team won five of six qualifying matches, but conceding goals to Azerbaijan and drawing against Iceland are areas where he will seek improvement.

With the attacking quality of Mbappe, Michael Olise, and Bradley Barcola, France looks like a formidable prospect.

England boasts an 11.8% chance of winning, the third-highest among all nations according to Opta.

Harry Kane will look to lead his team to glory, as his outstanding form has seen the star striker score 24 goals in just 20 matches for Bayern this season.

Jude Bellingham showed his frustration after being substituted against Albania, and Tuchel has warned the star that attitude is key.

Nonetheless, there is no doubt that Tuchel will want Bellingham to be ready and well-rested this season as he prepares for his first major tournament as England’s coach.

Argentina is not expected to retain its world champion status, with the South Americans given an 8.7% chance of lifting the trophy again.

They finished clear winners in the long South American qualifying system. With Messi turning 39 this summer, his age could very well be a factor, and with the MLS season nearing its end, the lack of competitive matches could be an issue for his readiness for the 2026 World Cup.

On the other hand, Opta has given three teams zero chance of winning the World Cup.

Jordan and Curaçao are among them, both making their tournament debuts. Curaçao is set to become the smallest nation by population to participate in the World Cup.

Haiti, returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1974, is also given a zero percent chance of lifting the trophy. Of course, all qualified countries have earned the right to be there.

**Predicted chances:**

Spain – 17%

France – 14.1%

England – 11.8%

Argentina – 8.7%

Germany – 7.1%

Portugal – 6.6%

Brazil – 5.6%

Netherlands – 5.2%

Norway – 2.3%

Colombia – 2.0%

Belgium – 1.9%