The win over Serbia: the scenarios that could take the national team to the World Cup in the USA

After Saturday’s win against Serbia, Albania has 11 points from six matches, while the closest follower, who was defeated in Leskovac, has 7 points. However, they have played only five matches and still have three left to play.

At first glance, it seems that these two teams will compete for second place in Group K, which offers the opportunity to advance to the playoffs for World Cup qualification.

In the two remaining matches, if Albania beats Andorra away, the Red and Blacks would reach 14 points. They would even have the luxury of losing the last match against England at “Air Albania.”

In that case, Serbia would not only need to win all three of its matches or win two and draw one, but would also have to significantly improve its goal difference, as theirs is currently worse than Albania’s (Albania is at +3, while Serbia is at -2). So, in the scenario where Albania wins against Andorra, the goal difference would also need to improve, making it even harder for Serbia to take second place from Albania with two wins against Andorra and Latvia and a possible draw against England. Because in the event of a tie on points at the end of the qualifiers, the first criterion taken into account is the overall goal difference.

If Silvinho’s team wins convincingly in Andorra and loses in Tirana against England, Serbia would have to win all three of its matches—meaning it would need to beat not only Andorra and Latvia, but also England (on November 13), where taking three points is almost impossible. So, if Serbia loses to England, we are practically in second place. If they pull off a surprise and draw in London, Albania would need a win with goals against Andorra, always assuming we lose to England.

If we finish second, definitively eliminating Serbia, we still would not qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup. In that case, Albania would qualify for the second stage of the qualifiers—the playoff phase. In this phase, a total of 16 teams will participate: 12 teams that finish second in their groups, and 4 teams that are winners of their groups in the 2024–25 UEFA Nations League but did not finish first or second in the World Cup qualifying groups. These 16 teams will be divided into 4 groups of 4 teams each, and will play single-elimination matches, with the winner of each group qualifying for the 2026 World Cup.

Albania’s matches:

Andorra – Albania  13.11, 20:45

Albania – England  16.11, 18:00

Serbia’s matches:

Andorra – Serbia  14.10, 20:45

“KORÇA BOOM”