UN warning: The El Niño phenomenon is extremely strong, what do the data show for Europe?

The United Nations has warned that the rapid strengthening of the El Niño climate phenomenon, which is expected to reach a “high intensity” between July and September (reaching the third stage out of four on the scale), increases the likelihood of extreme weather events worldwide.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the phenomenon “is expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.”

In its first seasonal emergency warning bulletin, the organization referred to a “rapid development toward a high-intensity El Niño episode” between “July and September,” which will reach the third of four phases on the scale.

The phenomenon lasts up to a year

The update comes after the one published on June 2 by the WMO, when it announced that an El Niño event was imminent. A few days later, on June 11, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that the phenomenon had already begun in May.

This climate phenomenon usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and twelve months, according to the WMO.

It increases surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering winds, pressure systems, and global rainfall patterns. It also has a strong impact on global temperatures in the following year, the same source explains.

The El Niño phenomenon “is already present and is expected to strengthen rapidly, reaching strong intensity,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, according to the organization’s statement.

“It will increase the chances of droughts and heavy rainfall, as well as the risk of heatwaves on land and at sea in many regions of the world,” she continued.

The most recent El Niño event, in 2023 and 2024, saw the two warmest years ever recorded. The cyclical phenomenon has a domino effect on the planet’s climate for several months.

According to the WMO, forecasts from leading international centers indicate a continued and significant rise in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, expected to exceed 2°C in “key monitored areas.” Forecast models are highly consistent, meaning the level of confidence in these projections is high.

El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the period from September to November, and its effects are expected to “spread to many regions of the world.”

At the same time, temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic are also expected to remain above seasonal averages.

The WMO sees a “high” chance of above-normal temperatures in all inhabited areas, except the polar regions, from July to September.

It also predicts above-normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and below-normal rainfall in parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and most of Australia.

In equatorial Africa, the forecast shows a striking east-west contrast: above-normal rainfall in the north of the Gulf of Guinea, but below-normal rainfall in the Horn of Africa.

Below-normal rainfall is also expected in the Caribbean, northwestern South America, and parts of Central America, while the southwestern United States is expected to experience much wetter-than-average conditions.

In Europe, a strong north-south contrast is forecast, with more rainfall in the south and less in the north, although forecasts for the Old Continent are considered to have a lower level of confidence compared with other regions.

“KORÇA BOOM”