Alarm over the decline in Albania’s population: UN projects 2.2 million inhabitants by 2050

The latest UN data and population projections highlight an alarming situation for Albania and the Western Balkans. These countries are facing a significant population decline, a trend expected to deepen by mid-century, according to United Nations projections.

Based on UN data (World Population Prospects 2024), processed by Visual Capitalist, Albania’s population could fall from around 2.8 million in 2025 to just 2.2 million by 2050, reflecting a decline of about 19.2% compared to 2020.

The same negative trend is seen across the region. Serbia is expected to lose around 1.2 million people by 2050, dropping from 6.7 million to 5.5 million. Bosnia and Herzegovina is projected to shrink by about 685,000 people (-21.8%), Croatia by 614,000 (-16%), and North Macedonia by around 301,000 (-16.6%). These figures confirm that the Balkans are among the regions most affected by demographic decline in Europe, driven by high emigration, low birth rates, and an aging population.

The data also show a strong divergence between global regions. While the world’s population is expected to grow by about 1.4 billion people by 2050, this growth will be concentrated in a limited number of regions.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be the main engine of population growth. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo could nearly double their population, with growth of around 93%, while Nigeria, Angola, and Somalia are also among the fastest-growing countries in the world. In total, all 10 countries with the highest population growth are located in this region, driven by high fertility rates and declining mortality.

On the other hand, major global economies are entering a phase of sustained population decline. China is expected to lose over 150 million people by 2050, while Japan, Italy, and Russia are also facing significant population decreases. Countries outside Europe, such as Thailand, are also projected to shrink significantly due to very low birth rates and rapid aging.

These developments are expected to have profound impacts on labor markets, economic growth, and global power balances. For countries like Albania and the region, demographic decline means major challenges for the workforce, social systems, and long-term growth potential, making population one of the key issues of the coming decades.

“KORÇA BOOM”