Germany on alert: If the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen by June, a crisis will sweep across Europe!

According to internal forecasts by the European Union, there is a growing risk that oil and aviation fuel could become insufficient across member states.

While the federal government of Germany is trying to maintain calm, alarm bells have already been ringing in Brussels. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has for weeks warned that the oil crisis should not be underestimated. According to him, it is evolving into a full-scale energy crisis that is severely impacting the European economy.

According to internal European Union projections, there is a danger that oil and jet fuel supplies may become insufficient in member countries. For this reason, the EU is expected to soon introduce new measures aimed at reducing consumption and encouraging alternative energy sources. Jørgensen is calling for energy savings but stresses that supply should not be made artificially cheaper than its real cost. The first signs of shortages are already beginning to appear.

According to Jørgensen, if the conflict is not resolved very soon, even aviation fuel supplies could face serious problems. The German Airports Association has also warned about possible flight cancellations and rising ticket prices.

“There are fears that especially low-cost airlines and less important tourist destinations will be forced to cut even more flights,” ADV executive director Ralph Beisel told Welt am Sonntag.

The main reason is that kerosene prices have more than doubled over the past two months compared to the period before the war. Beisel does not expect the situation to normalize in the coming months. The fuel price monitor of the International Air Transport Association confirms the rapid increase in prices.

“The most optimistic scenario for 2026 is stagnation in passenger numbers. In the worst-case scenario, some airports could face a 10 percent reduction in capacity. If calculated across Europe, around 20 million passengers would be affected,” said Beisel.

According to him, some destinations could be removed entirely from air traffic schedules, while others would be served less frequently and at higher prices.

“By the end of June, global reserves will fall to a minimum,” he warned.

Assessments from analysts, researchers, and oil market experts suggest that June is expected to be particularly tense. Even a rapid peace agreement in the Persian Gulf would likely not be enough to ease the existing supply shortages. The critical point is expected to be reached during June.

So far, Saudi Arabia has partially managed to redirect oil supplies, while the United States and African countries have helped mitigate the effects of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz through increased exports. However, this compensatory capacity is reaching its limits. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at Vontobel, told Handelsblatt: “By the end of June, global reserves are expected to be reduced to a minimum and prices will need to rise significantly for demand to react and decrease.”

According to her, oil prices could reach record levels of up to 150 dollars per barrel.

Experts emphasize that although “only” 20 percent of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, this is still enough to gradually drain global reserves and strategic security stocks, especially if major economies such as the United States, China, or the European Union do not reduce consumption and continue operating at normal levels.

Markus Krebber, CEO of energy company RWE, also expressed concern in a statement to Handelsblatt: “The real and physical shortage has only just begun. Energy shipments from the region were still at sea for two to three months. Now, no new cargoes are arriving.”

The Druzhba pipeline stops oil supplies

The situation could also become critical for oil supplies during June. According to reports, the United States may gradually reduce oil exports to Europe.

Meanwhile, since May 1, crude oil from Kazakhstan has no longer been transported to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline. Germany’s association of fuel station operators warns that this could lead to further increases in fuel prices and, in the medium term, supply shortages if oil companies and political authorities fail to ensure effective crisis management and distribution.

“Prices would rise immediately,” a spokesperson for the association warned in comments to Berliner Zeitung.

According to the association, the supply interruption would remove around 20 percent of the up to 12 million tons of oil processed annually at the PCK refinery in Schwedt. Around 90 percent of vehicles in the Berlin-Brandenburg region are supplied with fuel produced from this oil. Suppliers also warn that motor oil could become insufficient.

Meanwhile, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, due to fears over jet fuel shortages, opened the way on May 8 for the use of aviation fuel imported from the United States. American kerosene has a different freezing point, but under the current circumstances this no longer appears to be considered a major issue.

However, it remains unclear how long the United States will continue exporting refined oil products. Meanwhile, the German federal government continues to publicly maintain a calm stance.

"KORÇA BOOM"