Open confrontation in Hormuz / The United States and Iran challenge each other, the blockade is broken

Although both sides claim strong control, data shows that the naval blockade is not fully effective.

The video released on Wednesday by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is staged like a Hollywood film. From an aerial view, a fast-moving vessel is seen approaching a container ship and anchoring beside it. Then, several masked men armed with automatic rifles, dressed in military uniforms, climb aboard using a rope ladder and enter the ship through an opening in its hull. Other scenes show soldiers moving through the ship with weapons at the ready and eventually taking over the bridge. The entire video is accompanied by dramatic music.

The footage shows the seizure of two container ships, “MSC Francesca” and “Epaminondas,” by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in the Strait of Hormuz. The propaganda video aims to project Iran’s power and demonstrate that it controls this strategic maritime route.

It was no surprise that just one day later, the U.S. Department of Defense released a similar video on social media. In it, two combat helicopters approach the oil tanker “Majestic X” in the Indian Ocean, before dozens of soldiers descend onto the deck using ropes. According to the Pentagon, the sanctioned vessel was transporting Iranian oil. The United States has also been enforcing a naval blockade for about two weeks. But is this really a “major success,” as Donald Trump claims?

According to official data from the U.S. military, the blockade is airtight. Central Command (Centcom), responsible for the Middle East, announced that a total of 33 ships have been forced to turn back so far. However, media reports and data from maritime tracking companies cast doubt on its effectiveness. The company Vortexa, cited by the Financial Times, says that since April 12 at least 34 vessels linked to Iran have managed to bypass the U.S. blockade.

According to Vortexa, at least six of these ships were carrying oil, totaling around 10.7 million barrels. Because Iran sells its oil at lower prices due to international sanctions, the estimated revenue amounts to about $910 million, funds that end up in Iran’s coffers.

Other information providers such as Kpler and Lloyd’s List also confirm that some vessels have passed through the blockade, although the figures vary. Collecting accurate data is difficult, as many ships turn off their transponders or falsify their positions. In some cases, oil is transferred at sea to other vessels to conceal its origin.

“The blockade is by no means 100 percent sealed,” says Christian Bueger, a maritime security expert and professor at the University of Copenhagen. According to him, this is not crucial: “There will always be ships that get through. The main goal is the signal and the deterrent effect. For Trump, this was the last way to create leverage in negotiations with Tehran.”

New mines in the Strait of Hormuz

According to Bueger, Iran has the advantage in this “cat-and-mouse” game: it continues to maintain control over the strait, partly due to its geographic position. Iran operates along a coastline of more than 1,500 kilometers and, despite losses, still has hundreds of small vessels capable of attacking and stopping commercial ships. Reports from Axios suggest that Iran has once again deployed naval mines in the area this week.

On Thursday, Donald Trump announced that he had ordered the U.S. Navy to sink without hesitation any vessel laying mines. He added that mine-clearing efforts would be tripled. However, U.S. ships do not appear to have moved deep into the Persian Gulf, where they would be more exposed. Instead, the United States has concentrated its presence in the Gulf of Oman, creating a defensive zone. Currently, more than 17 warships and around 100 helicopters and aircraft are stationed in the region.

One example of intervention occurred last Sunday, when the container ship “MV Touska” was stopped in the Gulf of Oman after ignoring warnings for several hours. The U.S. destroyer “USS Spruance” fired into the engine room, rendering the vessel immobile. Soldiers then boarded from helicopters and took control.

However, facing U.S. forces is a large Iranian fleet of commercial ships and tankers; 440 vessels linked to Iran are on the U.S. sanctions list alone. This makes it practically impossible to stop every ship.

Recently, the United States has also begun intercepting Iran-linked vessels outside the region, such as the case of the “Majestic X” in the Indian Ocean. According to experts, this represents a significant expansion of the conflict.

In the end, the decisive factor will be which side can endure the consequences of this dual blockade for longer. Iran faces not only economic pressure but also limits on its oil storage capacity. The decommissioned tanker “Nasha” is heading toward Kharg Island to store excess oil.

According to experts, storage capacity could be completely filled by the end of April. In that case, Iran would be forced to shut down some oil wells a move that could have long-term consequences for production.

“KORÇA BOOM”