Researchers’ warning: 2026 could be the worst wildfire year in history, as El Niño and climate change increase the risk

Wildfires around the world are expected to reach record levels this year, driven by climate change and the return of the El Niño phenomenon, researchers have warned. According to them, the global fire season has started with record intensity and is expected to worsen in the coming months. Theodore Kipping from Imperial College London said during a media briefing that since the beginning of the year, around 50% more burned area has been recorded compared to the average of previous years for the same period.

According to data from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), the total burned area up to May 6 has reached 1.63 billion hectares, while the average for the 2012–2025 period was around 1.1 billion hectares. Researchers emphasize that this level is about 20% higher than the previous record since global monitoring began in 2012.

The situation is particularly alarming in Africa, where many West African countries and the Sahel region are facing record levels of fires. Experts explain that the alternation of intense rainfall with long periods of drought has favored the spread of wildfires in the savannah. Scientists also warn about the return of the El Niño phenomenon, a natural cycle in the Pacific Ocean that affects global temperatures and climate. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the chances of El Niño returning between May and July are increasingly high, while La Niña is weakening.

Kipping stresses that if a strong El Niño develops, the potential for extreme and highly dangerous wildfires could be the highest in decades. According to him, the phenomenon could create extremely hot and dry conditions in Australia, northwestern USA and Canada, as well as in the Amazon rainforest. Scientist Frederick Otto from Imperial College London also warns that the combination of El Niño and human-caused climate change could lead to unprecedented extreme weather events worldwide.

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